What Are the Odds of Being Struck by Lightning? And Does It Strike Twice?
Lightning: 1 in 1.2 million a year, 1 in 15,300 in a lifetime. 240 times likelier than a jackpot, and it strikes twice all the time.
Read the story →Real life
Statistics, straight from real life.
No charts, no tickers, no trading. Just the everyday places where statistics quietly fools all of us: the morning after, the wedding bet, the five-star bar with three reviews. Uncle Gary appears in most of them, usually holding a drink.
Do Lottery Winners Really Go Broke? The 70% Statistic Nobody Can Find
'70% of lottery winners go broke' is everywhere. The organisation it's credited to says it never measured that. Real data: about 1 in 18.
Read the story →Why Does It Always Rain on the Weekend?
Gary's barbecue was rained off three weekends running. If 30% of days are wet, 51% of weekends get rain. The weather doesn't know your plans.
Read the story →What Are the Odds of Winning the Lottery? And Does It Have a Pattern?
Gary plays birthdays and 'hot numbers'. Kevin plays 1-2-3-4-5. Same odds: 1 in 292,201,338. The lottery has no pattern, only a price.
Read the story →Is It a Coincidence or a Sign?
Linda sees 11:11 several times a week. Check the time 50 times a day and you'd be stranger not to. A coincidence counts hits, not chances.
Read the story →Why Do Bad Things Happen in Threes?
Car, boiler, phone in the soup. Gary says bad things come in threes. Random luck clumps: three in one week happens in 82% of years.
Read the story →The Group Chat Vote: 80% Want Christmas at Ours
Four of five votes in the family chat said Christmas at Gary's. The family has 14 members. Real support: anywhere from 29% to 93%.
Read the story →The Sunk Cost Fallacy: The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Gary's Camper Van Will Pay for Itself
Gary won't sell the van until it pays for itself. At two trips a year, it never will. His spreadsheet says it's 40% there.
Read the story →The Thermostat War: Why Splitting the Difference Pleases Nobody
Gary likes 66°F, Linda 74°F. Their 70°F compromise has lasted 31 years. It's the only setting where nobody is comfortable.
Read the story →How Long Does It Take to Form a Habit? Why Your Routine Lasts Four Days
Linda's new routine lasted four days. Gary predicted it. He didn't know Linda, he knew a formula.
Read the story →The Friendship Paradox: Why The Friendship Paradox: Why "Everyone Else Is Allowed"
Mia says everyone else is allowed out until midnight. In her class, 1 in 5 is. Among her friends, 3 in 4 are. She isn't lying.
Read the story →Is Fantasy Football Luck or Skill? Kevin's Three Titles, Tested
Kevin won his fantasy league three years running: a 1 in 1,728 chance. Across 10,000 leagues, luck makes 69 Kevins.
Read the story →Who Does More Housework? Why Couples Add Up to 140%
Gary says he does 70% of the housework. Linda says she does 70%. Kevin says 30%. The dishes are still in the sink.
Read the story →What Does a 30% Chance of Rain Mean? The Weather App Didn't Lie
30% chance of rain, said the app. Gary heard '70% chance of nothing'. Over ten such days, his plan gets him soaked 97% of the time.
Read the story →Can Achy Joints Predict the Weather? Grandpa's Knee, Tested
Grandpa Frank's knee has predicted rain for forty years and has never been wrong. We counted the four boxes.
Read the story →Are Black Friday Deals Really Saving You Money? We Each Saved 30%
Linda saved $180. Gary saved $300. Together they spent $420 more than they planned. Both numbers are true.
Read the story →Is 50% Off Actually Saving You Money?
Aunt Linda's coat was 50% off, then another 50% off. 'Practically free', she said. It was 25% of the price.
Read the story →Why You Always Pick the Slowest Queue
Gary studies three queues like a chess grandmaster and still loses. He's not unlucky. He's outnumbered.
Read the story →How Many Bad Days in a Row Before the Universe Is Against You?
Gary's quiz team lost ten weeks in a row and blamed the quizmaster. The maths says it was more likely than not.
Read the story →Why Most Drivers Really Can Be Better Than Average
Most drivers think they're better than average. Mathematically, most of them can be. Thank Kevin.
Read the story →Where Do Missing Socks Go? A Statistical Investigation
Socks disappear one at a time, but pairs die in bulk. Lose 30% of your socks and more than half the pairs are gone.
Read the story →Do Hangover Cures Work? Why Every One of Them Seems To
Uncle Gary's pickle juice works every time. So does a glass of water and some cartoons. Meet regression to the mean.
Read the story →The Birthday Paradox Explained at a Wedding
Kevin bets Gary $20 at a wedding with a free bar. Gary should have counted the pairs.
Read the story →Are Online Reviews Trustworthy? Are Online Reviews Trustworthy? Five Stars From Seven Reviews
A 5.0 cocktail bar with three reviews versus a 4.5 pub with 1,800. One of them has the owner's mum on its side.
Read the story →Office stories (KPIs, dashboards, meetings about meetings) have their own section: Corporate life.